There were comments by some friends that delimitation due to increase in population was primarily due to the increase in Muslim Population. They were suggesting that opposition to delimitation on the basis of population would go against the interests of the minorities (Muslims). This was another spin like saying that opposition to delimitation was against women’s reservation. Though those who propounded this theory were not those who were very friendly to Muslim cause, (as much as they were not really for the cause of women’s reservation) it becomes necessary to investigate into this propagation with the statistics available on population studies in India, because, this is one of the most often propagated factors against the Muslims of India.
For the above study, I have
taken the data from the following sources:
Census figures of 1971 and
2011
Population growth and religious composition
Hate Buster: Muslims and the Myth of Polygamy in India
The Law on Polygamy among religious groups in India
Based on the above data, the following 14 states and Union Territories in Chart 1, have a Muslim population of 10% or higher, as per the 2011 Census
Chart 1
Now, among the above 14 states and Union
Territories, the following (refer Chart 2) recorded a population growth rate
exceeding the national average of 19.22% in the 2011 Census.
Chart 2
Even among the six states/ UTs in Chart 2 (except for
J&K) where the decadal population growth rate (2001-11)
has been above the national growth rate, the Muslim population
does not exceed 20%. The
total rate of population increase being more than that means that the increase
in population rate in these states cannot be attributed to the Muslim population alone.
In the case of Jammu
& Kashmir, although the Muslim population constitutes about
68%—significantly higher than the national average of 14%—the population growth
rate is 23.17%, which is only about four percentage points higher than the
national average growth rate of 19.22%.
In respect of the following states (refer Chart 3),
though they have a Muslim Population of 10% or more, their share in the
national population has not increased, rather significantly decreased, between
the 1971 Census and 2011 Census. And,
as per 2011 census it is not more than the national growth rate of 19.22%.
Chart 3
In Chart 3, it may be seen
that Assam, Gujarat, Karnataka, Maharashtra and West Bengal are larger states.
All the above states have 10% or more of Muslim population. In particular, the
percentage of Muslim population in Kerala and West Bengal are 27% each. In
spite of that, their rate of population increase is significantly lesser than
the national rate. From the above statistics, it could be seen that the Muslim
population has nothing to do with rate of increase in population of each state.
While the above three charts
are clear indicators of the fact that more Muslim population is not directly
proportional to the population growth rate, let us consider states and UTs
which are home to less than 10% Muslim population. Chart 4 shows that in states
and UTs where there is less than 10% of Muslim population, the population
growth rate as per 2011 Census was more than the national growth rate of 19.22%
or around the same rate.
Chart 4
It is to be noted that out of
the above, Madhya Pradesh (7% Muslim population) and Rajasthan (9% Muslim
Population) are bigger states.
Thus, what could be seen from
the above discussed data is that some states have higher population increase
rate, irrespective of whether their Muslim Population is more or not and
essentially these are seen to be states which are backward in economic development
when compared to the states where the population increase rate is lesser.
Further,
while the Hindu growth rate declined from 24% (1971–81) to 16.70% (2001–11),
the Muslim growth rate during the same periods has been at 30.7% and 24.7%,
respectively. Notably, there are certain states where the overall population
growth rate has not decreased substantially across these periods and where a
significant Muslim population is present. These include: Bihar with 17% Muslim population, Jammu & Kashmir
with 69% Muslim population, Jharkhand with 15% Muslim population and Uttar
Pradesh at 19% Muslim population.
Chart 5
The
above Chart 5 suggests that the growth rate has not declined substantially in
these states, and this trend appears to apply to both Muslims and non-Muslims (excluding J&K since the state (now 3) has a
major Muslim population).
Now, coming to a comparison of
the increase in the Muslim population in the entire country, vis-à-vis states,
it is seen that the percentage was 11.21% in 1971 while it rose to 14% in 2011.
The increase is by 2.79%. However, when this is examined state wise, for the
same period, it is seen that in the following states, the percentage increase
is more than the national percentage increase of 2.79%.
The percentage increase in
Muslim population between 1971 and 2011 is given within brackets: Assam (9.97),
Bihar (3.52), Chandigarh (3.55), Delhi (6.53), Goa (4.24), Haryana (2.96) and West
Bengal (6.54).
Yet, data shows that apart
from Bihar (25.07%) and Delhi (20.96%), all the other states and UTs have had
an overall growth rate lesser than the national average of 19.22%.
Particularly, in Assam, where the percentage of Muslim population has increased
by 9.97% (much higher than the states mentioned above), their growth rate for
2001-11 is only 16.93%, lesser than the national growth rate for the period.
These data further
substantiate that the increase in population of a state is not directly a
consequence of the increase in Muslim Population. So, linking the factor of
population increase in different states to their Muslim population does not
appear to have a proper basis.
As per the PEW research
organization, based on study of the census figures from 1951 to 2011:
“Growth rates have declined for all of India’s
major religious groups, but the slowdown has been more pronounced among
religious minorities, who outpaced Hindus in earlier decades. Between 1951 and
1961, the Muslim population expanded by 32.7%, 11 percentage points more than
India’s overall rate of 21.6%. But this gap has narrowed. From 2001 to 2011,
the difference in growth between Muslims (24.7%) and Indians overall (17.7%)
was 7 percentage points. India’s Christian population grew at the slowest pace
of the three largest groups in the most recent census decade – gaining 15.7%
between 2001 and 2011, a far lower growth rate than the one recorded in the
decade following Partition (29.0%).”
The above analysis indicates
that more than religion, it is literacy and economic factors that determine the
population growth among various communities and the more literate states are
seen to have lesser growth rates.
To verify the above, we go
into the literacy levels of the states where the growth rate of population is
more than the national growth rate. We
find that the following states (Chart 6) where the population growth rates are
more than the national population growth rate of 19.92% are also below the
national literacy rate of 74.04%.
Chart 6
In the case of Delhi, although
the literacy rate (86.21%) is higher than the national average, the population
growth rate (20.96%) also exceeds the national growth rate. This may indicate
substantial migration into the national capital from economically and socially
weaker states.
In contrast, in Kerala and
West Bengal where the Muslim population is approximately 27% in each state, the
population growth rates are significantly lower than the national average. This
is likely attributable to Kerala’s literacy rate, which is considerably higher
than the national average and that of West Bengal which also has a higher literacy
rate than the national average.
Thus,
it can be clearly observed that literacy, rather than religion, is the primary
factor influencing population growth at both the state and the national level.
Now, we come to the question
of the polygamy among Muslims: Turning to the issue of
polygamy among Muslims, available data suggests that the practice is not
confined to any one community. Statistics indicate that polygamy exists across different
religions and regions in India.
According
to the National Family Health Survey-5 (2019–20), the prevalence of polygamy
was 2.1% among Christians, 1.9% among Muslims, 1.3% among Hindus, and 1.6%
among other groups. The data also shows that polygynous marriages are more
common in certain Northeastern states, particularly in areas with significant
tribal populations. In fact, 40 districts with the highest polygyny rates are those with a high population of
tribal communities.
Seen
in this light, the idea that polygamy among Muslims is a major driver of
population growth in that community appears to be another exaggeration. The same study
also points to instances of men converting to Islam in order to take advantage
of Personal Law provisions that permit more than one marriage.
Only when the nation is out of such blinker like statements, even among learned people, that Muslim predominance in the country is one of the reasons for low performance on economic front, can we really make progress by addressing real issues.
Hence, instead of wasting our resources and energy in increasing the number of seats in Parliament and Legislatures to represent the people, it will be more beneficial to invest in education, health care, etc., which will have a long-term benefit for the citizens of the country.
(Note: I should thank Ms. Dharani Thangavelu for helping me in preparing and presenting the graphs for ease of understanding the statistics)










