#delimitation #Womensreservation and #Muslimpopulation - a study

 

There were comments by some friends that delimitation due to increase in population was primarily due to the increase in Muslim Population. They were suggesting that opposition to delimitation on the basis of population would go against the interests of the minorities (Muslims).  This was another spin like saying that opposition to delimitation was against women’s reservation.  Though those who propounded this theory were not those who were very friendly to Muslim cause, (as much as they were not really for the cause of women’s reservation) it becomes necessary to investigate into this propagation with the statistics available on population studies in India, because, this is one of the most often propagated factors against the Muslims of India. 

 

For the above study, I have taken the data from the following sources:

Census figures of 1971 and 2011

Population growth and religious composition

Hate Buster: Muslims and the Myth of Polygamy in India

The Law on Polygamy among religious groups in India

 

Based on the above data, the following 14 states and Union Territories in Chart 1, have a Muslim population of 10% or higher, as per the 2011 Census

Chart 1

 

 

Now, among the above 14 states and Union Territories, the following (refer Chart 2) recorded a population growth rate exceeding the national average of 19.22% in the 2011 Census.

Chart 2

Even among the six states/ UTs in Chart 2 (except for J&K) where the decadal population growth rate (2001-11) has been above the national growth rate, the Muslim population does not exceed 20%. The total rate of population increase being more than that means that the increase in population rate in these states cannot be attributed to the Muslim population alone.

In the case of Jammu & Kashmir, although the Muslim population constitutes about 68%—significantly higher than the national average of 14%—the population growth rate is 23.17%, which is only about four percentage points higher than the national average growth rate of 19.22%.

In respect of the following states (refer Chart 3), though they have a Muslim Population of 10% or more, their share in the national population has not increased, rather significantly decreased, between the 1971 Census and 2011 Census.  And, as per 2011 census it is not more than the national growth rate of 19.22%.

Chart 3

 

In Chart 3, it may be seen that Assam, Gujarat, Karnataka, Maharashtra and West Bengal are larger states. All the above states have 10% or more of Muslim population. In particular, the percentage of Muslim population in Kerala and West Bengal are 27% each. In spite of that, their rate of population increase is significantly lesser than the national rate. From the above statistics, it could be seen that the Muslim population has nothing to do with rate of increase in population of each state.

 

While the above three charts are clear indicators of the fact that more Muslim population is not directly proportional to the population growth rate, let us consider states and UTs which are home to less than 10% Muslim population. Chart 4 shows that in states and UTs where there is less than 10% of Muslim population, the population growth rate as per 2011 Census was more than the national growth rate of 19.22% or around the same rate.

Chart 4

It is to be noted that out of the above, Madhya Pradesh (7% Muslim population) and Rajasthan (9% Muslim Population) are bigger states.

 

Thus, what could be seen from the above discussed data is that some states have higher population increase rate, irrespective of whether their Muslim Population is more or not and essentially these are seen to be states which are backward in economic development when compared to the states where the population increase rate is lesser. 

 

Further, while the Hindu growth rate declined from 24% (1971–81) to 16.70% (2001–11), the Muslim growth rate during the same periods has been at 30.7% and 24.7%, respectively. Notably, there are certain states where the overall population growth rate has not decreased substantially across these periods and where a significant Muslim population is present. These include: Bihar with 17% Muslim population, Jammu & Kashmir with 69% Muslim population, Jharkhand with 15% Muslim population and Uttar Pradesh at 19% Muslim population.

Chart 5

The above Chart 5 suggests that the growth rate has not declined substantially in these states, and this trend appears to apply to both Muslims and non-Muslims (excluding J&K since the state (now 3) has a major Muslim population).

 

Now, coming to a comparison of the increase in the Muslim population in the entire country, vis-à-vis states, it is seen that the percentage was 11.21% in 1971 while it rose to 14% in 2011. The increase is by 2.79%. However, when this is examined state wise, for the same period, it is seen that in the following states, the percentage increase is more than the national percentage increase of 2.79%. 

 

The percentage increase in Muslim population between 1971 and 2011 is given within brackets: Assam (9.97), Bihar (3.52), Chandigarh (3.55), Delhi (6.53), Goa (4.24), Haryana (2.96) and West Bengal (6.54).

 

Yet, data shows that apart from Bihar (25.07%) and Delhi (20.96%), all the other states and UTs have had an overall growth rate lesser than the national average of 19.22%. Particularly, in Assam, where the percentage of Muslim population has increased by 9.97% (much higher than the states mentioned above), their growth rate for 2001-11 is only 16.93%, lesser than the national growth rate for the period.

 

These data further substantiate that the increase in population of a state is not directly a consequence of the increase in Muslim Population. So, linking the factor of population increase in different states to their Muslim population does not appear to have a proper basis.

 

As per the PEW research organization, based on study of the census figures from 1951 to 2011:

“Growth rates have declined for all of India’s major religious groups, but the slowdown has been more pronounced among religious minorities, who outpaced Hindus in earlier decades. Between 1951 and 1961, the Muslim population expanded by 32.7%, 11 percentage points more than India’s overall rate of 21.6%. But this gap has narrowed. From 2001 to 2011, the difference in growth between Muslims (24.7%) and Indians overall (17.7%) was 7 percentage points. India’s Christian population grew at the slowest pace of the three largest groups in the most recent census decade – gaining 15.7% between 2001 and 2011, a far lower growth rate than the one recorded in the decade following Partition (29.0%).”

 

The above analysis indicates that more than religion, it is literacy and economic factors that determine the population growth among various communities and the more literate states are seen to have lesser growth rates.

 

To verify the above, we go into the literacy levels of the states where the growth rate of population is more than the national growth rate.  We find that the following states (Chart 6) where the population growth rates are more than the national population growth rate of 19.92% are also below the national literacy rate of 74.04%. 

Chart 6

In the case of Delhi, although the literacy rate (86.21%) is higher than the national average, the population growth rate (20.96%) also exceeds the national growth rate. This may indicate substantial migration into the national capital from economically and socially weaker states.

In contrast, in Kerala and West Bengal where the Muslim population is approximately 27% in each state, the population growth rates are significantly lower than the national average. This is likely attributable to Kerala’s literacy rate, which is considerably higher than the national average and that of West Bengal which also has a higher literacy rate than the national average.

 

Thus, it can be clearly observed that literacy, rather than religion, is the primary factor influencing population growth at both the state and the national level.

 

Now, we come to the question of the polygamy among Muslims: Turning to the issue of polygamy among Muslims, available data suggests that the practice is not confined to any one community. Statistics indicate that polygamy exists across different religions and regions in India.

 

According to the National Family Health Survey-5 (2019–20), the prevalence of polygamy was 2.1% among Christians, 1.9% among Muslims, 1.3% among Hindus, and 1.6% among other groups. The data also shows that polygynous marriages are more common in certain Northeastern states, particularly in areas with significant tribal populations. In fact, 40 districts with the highest polygyny rates are those with a high population of tribal communities.

 

Seen in this light, the idea that polygamy among Muslims is a major driver of population growth in that community appears to be another exaggeration. The same study also points to instances of men converting to Islam in order to take advantage of Personal Law provisions that permit more than one marriage.

 

Only when the nation is out of such blinker like statements, even among learned people, that Muslim predominance in the country is one of the reasons for low performance on economic front, can we really make progress by addressing real issues. 

 

Hence, instead of wasting our resources and energy in increasing the number of seats in Parliament and Legislatures to represent the people, it will be more beneficial to invest in education, health care, etc., which will have a long-term benefit for the citizens of the country.

(Note: I should thank Ms. Dharani Thangavelu for helping me in preparing and presenting the graphs for ease of understanding the statistics)